Canada’s electric vehicle (EV) industry is charging forward, laying the groundwork for a future that’s cleaner, healthier and full of opportunity. Every transformative shift comes with its share of challenges, but the progress we’ve seen in the EV sector highlights its vast potential. From advances in technology to the steady expansion of charging infrastructure, every step forward strengthens the foundation of this growing industry.
EV sales on track for record-breaking growth
Globally, EV sales are set to break records again in 2024, with Bloomberg estimating 16.7 million units sold, up from 13.9 million in 2023. In Canada, the momentum is also present: zero-emissions vehicles now account for about one in six new vehicle registrations, with market share climbing to 16.5% in Q3 2024 — up from 13.4% a year earlier. Zero-emissions vehicles are expected to make up 15.2% of vehicle sales by the end of 2024.
Quebec and B.C. are leading the charge, with 34.6% and 24.9%, respectively, up from 28.4% and 21.8% in Q2. These provinces have shown that investing in incentives, infrastructure and innovation effectively reduces barriers to adoption, making EVs more accessible and desirable. Their provincial sales targets further ensure consumers have access to these vehicles and offer a model for other provinces looking to accelerate their own transition to zero-emission transportation. With federally mandated sales targets starting in 2025, Canada is taking an important step forward toward nationwide access and cleaner transportation. As the EV market matures, these supports remain essential to sustain momentum, especially for decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors.
While passenger vehicles are leading the charge, the electrification of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, like trucks and buses, is still in the early stages. With only 2% of these vehicles sold in Canada by the end of 2023, they represent a huge opportunity for emissions reductions. Scaling up this transition will require focused policies and significant infrastructure investment.
This shift matters because it drives economic growth by creating jobs in EV manufacturing, supply chains and infrastructure development, while positioning Canada as a leader in zero-emission transportation technologies. At the same time, EVs offer long term savings for individuals and businesses. EVs are less expensive to fuel and maintain compared to their gas-powered counterparts, making them a more cost-effective option over their lifetimes. Cleaner transportation also significantly reduces air pollution, alleviating the public health burden caused by traffic-related emissions. Together, these efforts mean healthier communities, new economic opportunities and a more affordable and sustainable future.
Industry adoption for long-term growth
Of course, growth in a rapidly evolving industry is rarely linear. Some manufacturers have adjusted their EV production targets this year, reflecting the growing pains of a maturing market. These adjustments aren’t a signal of slowdown — they show that automakers are fine-tuning strategies, streamlining supply chains and innovating to meet rising demand more efficiently. In this context, these shifts are part of an industry finding its stride and positioning itself for long-term growth.
Governments at all levels must continue to play a crucial role in ensuring the ongoing momentum of EV adoption. This means investing in the development of reliable and widespread charging infrastructure that grows in tandem with the number of EVs on the road. It also requires maintaining and expanding incentives to lower the upfront cost of EVs, making them accessible to more Canadians. This includes extending the zero-emission vehicle rebate programs, targeting rebates more closely to income levels and implementing a gradual phase-down to ensure rebates are not abruptly or entirely eliminated. These actions don’t just support growth — they build public confidence and demonstrate the benefits of zero-emission transportation.
As we look to 2025, the EV industry is set for a pivotal year. By the time we reflect on its achievements, Canada will be on the cusp of 2026 — a landmark moment when 20% of all new car sales are expected to be zero-emission. This milestone underscores the accelerated shift toward cleaner, more sustainable transportation and the economic opportunities it brings.
The Pembina Institute’s vision for the future
How will we get there? Over the past year and a half, our reports have mapped out the path forward:
- Helping Fleets Charge identifies solutions to charging challenges. In 2025, the Grid Readiness project will pinpoint optimal freight charging locations in the GTHA.
- ZeroX2040 offers over 20 policy recommendations to address planning and infrastructure gaps for zero-emission vehicles.
- Power Boost highlights how electric school buses can reduce emissions, revitalize SMEs in the auto sector and improve health outcomes.
- Fueling the Transition explores the role of clean fuels in road freight decarbonization.
- A clean transportation future hinges on inclusivity introduces policies to reduce adoption barriers for fleet operators, with more work planned for 2025.
