Oil and gas production is Canada’s largest source of emissions. We study how technical solutions, well-designed policy and robust regulations can push the industry to reduce emissions. In doing so, Canadian oil and gas will futureproof itself to compete in world based on low-carbon energy resources.
Oil & Gas
The oil and gas sector must urgently adapt itself to meet the needs of Canada’s low-carbon future.
Canadian oil production is set to decline as consumers switch to using low-carbon energy
If the world achieves its pledge of net-zero by 2050, global oil demand will fall and Canadian crude oil production will enter into long-term decline in the 2030s, ultimately falling by 80% by 2050. (Data source: Canada Energy Regulator; see Meeting the emissions cap (2024))
Key numbers
of CO2 equivalent emitted for every barrel of Canadian oil produced, among the highest intensity in the world.
Assessing the cost and carbon competitiveness of Canada’s oil
The Pembina Institute looked at 36 major producing oilfields in Canada, representing about 62% of all Canadian production, 92% of Alberta’s production, and all offshore production. Most Canadian projects are well above global averages on both price and carbon.
Read the reportResearch & Analysis
Oil and gas emissions cap an important element of Canada’s economic future
Regulation of oil and gas emissions a key step to ensuring a cleaner, futureproofed industryTurning Tides
The economic risks of B.C.’s LNG expansion in a changing energy marketTime for a real conversation about energy transition
And what we need to do to seize the benefitsThe new energy economy has arrived, and Canada must pay attention
International Energy Agency’s 2024 World Energy Outlook full of proof points of the scale and pace of the world’s transition to clean energyWhy work on oil and gas?
As the world transitions to cleaner energy sources, the oil and gas industry has to change.
A range of forecasters now expect that, as more of our energy uses become electrified (such as the uptake of electric vehicles and electric-powered home heating solutions), demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030.
Oil and gas companies that have the lowest emissions associated with the production of their products will be in the best position to compete for the demand that is left.
This is the challenge for Canadian oil and gas, which is amongst the most expensive and carbon-intensive to produce and refine in the world. If companies do not adapt, they risk leaving behind significant financial and environmental liabilities—particularly in Alberta— that Canadians will have to pay for.
Our work offers practical, evidence-based policy solutions that will lead to rapid emissions reductions from the oil and gas sector, so that it can play its part in meeting Canada’s climate goals, and continue to offer economic benefits to workers and communities.
How do we do this?
We advocate for oil and gas emissions to be regulated
Emissions from Canada’s heavy industrial sectors have fallen since 2005. Meanwhile, emissions from Canada’s oil and gas sector have grown. Although policy measures—such as the industrial carbon price and methane regulations—have incentivized companies to reduce emissions, it is clear further specific regulation for the oil and gas sector is needed.
The Government of Canada has proposed a sector-specific cap on oil and gas emissions, which it proposes to combine with other measures – such as investment tax credits for oil and gas companies that invest in carbon capture projects. If well-designed, this regulation will provide additional long-term certainty to companies about what emissions reductions are required and on what timeline, improving the business case for their decarbonization projects.
We raise awareness about methane emissions
Reducing methane emissions from Canada's oil and gas production using existing technologies is both achievable and cost-effective: a huge area of opportunity.
Search our methane work
Canada’s methane regulations have already had a positive downward impact on emissions in the oil and gas sector. We want to celebrate this success, while also advocating for regulations to be tightened further, in alignment with the rapid development of methane measurement and abatement techniques.
We track oilsands climate promises
Canada’s oilsands companies have pledged to decarbonize their operations and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
But this has so far been accompanied by almost no action, with companies instead lobbying for additional public funding to turn their pledges into reality. We are concerned that time is rapidly running out for the companies to start work on reducing emissions, and taxpayers may be being asked to shoulder an unfair share of the cost.
We are tracking their progress. In doing so, we are encouraging companies to urgently provide more details on project timelines and investment decisions. Our work also aims to demystify some of the companies’ claims about what emissions reductions are feasible, on what timeline, and at what cost – so that politicians, policymakers, other environmental groups, the media and the public can hold these companies to account.
We highlight what the global switch to low-carbon energy use means for Canada’s oil and gas sector
As the world edges closer to 2030 and 2050—our milestone climate years—ever more policies to reduce emissions are being put into practice. This will likely have a downward impact on global demand for fossil fuels.
A big part of our work is to understand how and when this decline will begin, and to communicate this information to industry, governments, and the public.
For example, by understanding the future demand for natural gas we are in a better position to direct our ongoing research into British Columbia’s proposed LNG production and export projects.
We hold industry accountable to their clean-up obligations
Oil and gas companies have a responsibility to the environment: they are legally obliged to clean up land they have used. We provide information to landowners about their rights regarding oil and gas development on or near their property.
Contact our oil & gas team
Interim Director
Janetta McKenzie
c: 587-328-2040
e: janettam@pembina.org
Media Contact
Alex Burton (Mountain Time)
c: 825-994-2558
e: alexb@pembina.org
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