Let's say one of the best economic analysis
firms in Canada is commissioned to calculate the economic consequences of
tackling climate change. A report is published that one of Canada's leading
economists calls "robust." And it shows that Canada can meet an ambitious
national emissions target while growing its economy by over 20 per cent and
creating nearly two million net new jobs.
Most of us would call that good news. But Canada's
environment minister, Jim Prentice, had a different response when the Pembina
Institute and the David Suzuki Foundation published exactly that analysis last
week: he called it "irresponsible" and "divisive." Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach
wants Ottawa to ignore the report, according to an article published in this
newspaper. What is behind the fearful responses from elected officials?
In short,
they're worried about protecting "business as usual." Our analysis shows that
Alberta will continue to lead the nation in GDP growth at 3.3 per cent per year
- but that this happens more slowly under our scenario than it would under
business as usual conditions. Alberta would still comfortably exceed 2 million
barrels per day of oilsands production by 2020, and would create 133,000 net
new jobs. But in the place of unfettered oilsands expansion, the industry
would grow at a more measured pace, and companies would build in emission
control technology like carbon capture and storage.
What Alberta
needs is "good growth," not growth that is inherently unsustainable and ignores
serious global issues and concerns. Our analysis shows economic growth in
Alberta is projected to be 38 per cent between 2010 and 2020 while reducing emissions
in line with the 2°C global warming limit endorsed by the G8+5 countries.
Alberta's over-heated growth rate of 43 per cent between 1998 and 2008 was
widely seen as unsustainable and unhealthy.
As a province
that is currently reliant on high-polluting energy sources, such as coal-fired
electricity, Albertans will face higher energy costs in the interim until we
transition to cleaner sources of energy. That's why our analysis included a
measure that would provide individual Albertans with $940 per year to
compensate them for higher household energy costs, using government revenues
collected from polluters. As a result, the vast majority of the revenue raised
from the policies we propose would stay in Alberta. This is far from the
"wealth transfer" that Premier Stelmach worried about, and it's exactly the
type of measure that governments would adopt to reduce concerns about regional
disparities as our economies evolve to become cleaner and more efficient.
So Canada and
Alberta can grow and prosper while cutting emissions, but not quite as much as
they would if we ignored climate change altogether and proceeded with "business
as usual."
In light of
that, it's worth taking a moment to consider the notion of "business as usual."
As Albertans, let's not forget what it was like living and working here during
the boom.
Suffering from
an overheated economy, we experienced high costs for housing, infrastructure
and basic services. We created jobs faster than skilled employees could fill
them, and a strained labour market drove up costs, diminished productivity, and
burned out employees. Our economy began to hollow out as industries and
businesses fled because they simply couldn't compete. Kids dropped out of
school in response to the allure of high-wage labour jobs. Some people rightly
observed that our economy was eroding from the bottom up.
Such an
unsustainable rate of economic growth led people like former premier Peter
Lougheed and St. Paul Bishop Luc Bouchard to call for a moderated pace of oil
sands development on economic, social, environmental and even moral grounds. We
have experienced first hand that faster growth isn't necessarily better.
Oilsands
development in Alberta has become the fastest growing source of global warming
pollution in Canada. So it is not surprising that many Albertans worry about
the challenge of reconciling our desire for healthy communities and a safe
environment with a prosperous economy. Our economic analysis shows that we can
achieve this balance, but only if our political leaders muster the courage to
move from fear-based rhetoric to serious action.
Alberta doesn't have to settle for "business
as usual." We have a choice in this province: take control of our own destiny
and lead, or be dragged into the future by forces beyond our control.
Dan Woynillowicz is a
senior policy analyst with the Pembina Institute. A copy of the report Climate Leadership, Economic Prosperity can be
downloaded at www.pembina.org/pub/1909.
