It wouldn't come as a huge surprise if Canada announced some funding for "fast start" climate financing in Copenhagen.
First, there's a virtual consensus now that poorer countries need urgent financial support to tackle climate change. And in late November, Canada signed on to a Commonwealth Climate Change Declaration that includes a "Copenhagen Launch Fund," which would start in 2010 and scale up to reach US$10 billion a year in 2012.
The Copenhagen climate deal will kick in the next year, starting in 2013. And the financing that poorer countries need will only ramp up in 2013 and beyond: a range of estimates show that the total financing needed is at least US$100 billion a year by 2020.
So the Copenhagen deal can't turn into a financing sprint, where countries pledge some funding now but pull up lame after 2012. Instead, short-term dollars are just the very first steps of a long race.
There's no question that new funding now is welcome. Short-term dollars are needed to help poor countries adapt to global warming - a problem they did very little to create. Developing countries also need support for actions that cut their emissions, whether that's by investing in clean technology or reducing deforestation. "Fast start" financing can help countries build on-the-ground adaptation experience.
But a Copenhagen deal needs to commit for the long term as well. And rich countries can recognize the true scale of the challenge by clearly stating the order of magnitude of support they will provide over the longer term. (For example, EU governments have agreed that around €100 billion a year will be required in 2020; many developing countries have made much higher estimates.)
So far, Canada doesn't have a position on the total amount of finance needed. And although Prime Minister Harper committed in May to providing our "fair share," the government hasn't given any real indication of what that means to them.
We estimated in April that Canada's share is about 3-4% of the global total. So if countries agree in Copenhagen to provide US$10 billion in 2012, Canada's share for 2012 would be around $320 to $420 million.
If Canada does pledge short-term financing, observers are guaranteed to ask, "Is this new money?" Re-announcing old commitments won't go far in rebuilding Canada's credibility. And it's critical that climate financing is over and above Canada's aid commitments: climate change hasn't made reducing poverty any less important.
Here's hoping that Canada gets it right in Copenhagen, by offering its fair share of new funding right away and demonstrating a commitment to get to the finish line.
