There's been a lot of speculation about what this week's election of Republican Scott Brown (Mass.) to the U.S. Senate might mean for congressional action on climate change in 2010. Instead of expecting the U.S. to move ahead with federal climate policy, should we, in Norman Spector's memorable phrasing, "fuggedahboutit"?
A climate and energy bill is high on the Senate's agenda for consideration in the first part of 2010. Whether it's Kerry-Boxer, Kerry-Graham-Lieberman, or some combination thereof, the U.S. clearly needs to pass a climate bill in order to contribute anything meaningful to the crucial global climate talks this year. Without a climate law in hand by the next major UN climate conference in Mexico in December, it will be very difficult to seal the deal on a new legally-binding treaty. Further delay would lead to increasingly irreversible global impacts, additional costs to meet emission targets, and an awful lot of market uncertainty.
So, should we be worried now that the Democrats have lost the 60-seat supermajority required to prevent a planet-scorching filibuster?
I would say no. At least, not more than usual.
For one thing, Massachusetts is hardly a credible state from which to launch a challenge against cap-and-trade legislation - they already have it. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) has been running for a year in 10 U.S. states, and has already raised nearly US$80 million for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts alone. All this money has been reinvested in public benefit and utility-run energy efficiency programs, as their legislation requires, creating green jobs and reducing emissions in the state.
In other words, it's been great news for the local economy and environment, as well as for state finances. Perhaps that's why Sen.-elect Brown voted for it as a state senator! (And why 80 prominent American business leaders — including eBay, Virgin America, PG&E, and NRG Energy — just released an open letter asking President Obama and Members of Congress to "move quickly to enact comprehensive climate and energy legislation that will create jobs and enhance U.S. competitiveness.")
Furthermore, as a sound analysis from Capitol Hill experts Energy & Environment Daily points out, passing climate and energy legislation in the U.S. Senate was always going to be a bipartisan effort. 
Eight Republicans stepped up to support Waxman-Markey as it passed the House last spring, and the impeccably conservative Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has already been working with Senators Kerry and Lieberman on bipartisan legislation. Sen. Graham has taken a lot of flak from the right wing of his own party but appears unfazed. If he can do it, surely other Republicans can and will too.
Even more encouraging, recent polling shows incredible support for cap-and-trade legislation among Independents across the U.S., and particularly in battleground states. Joe Romm at ClimateProgress highlights the stunning finding that Americans believe cap-and-trade will help the economy (over hurting it) more than the federal stimulus, bank bailouts, health care reform, and assistance to auto manufacturers.
Such strong results ought to fuel political courage amongst moderates on both sides of the aisle. Indeed, Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid did not shy away from addressing climate in his speech to Senate on Wednesday:
"We will continue to create new jobs, including good-paying clean-energy jobs that can never be outsourced.
"We will tackle our daunting energy and climate challenges, and by doing so will strengthen our national security, our environment and our economy.
"And as we do all these things, we will continue to leave a seat at the table for our Republican colleagues. Whether their caucus comprises 40 or 41 members, each composes this body of 100. We should all be united within the walls of this esteemed chamber, not defined by the aisle that divides its desks."
As Sen.-elect Brown settles into his new seat, here's hoping he will heed the advice of his new colleague, Sen. Kerry (D-Mass.) and focus on those who elected both of them, the people of Massachusetts:
"The political atmosphere doesn't reduce the urgency of dealing with climate and energy, and the surest way to increase the anger at Washington is to duck the issues that matter in peoples' lives," said Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in an e-mailed statement to E&E.
"There's overwhelming public support and this can be a bipartisan issue... This is the single best opportunity we have for energizing the economy, creating jobs and getting cleaner air, and if you sell those arguments you've got a winning issue."
