This document reviews the Supply Mix Advice Report released by the Ontario Power Authority in December 2005. The Power Authority recommended investments of up $83 billlion in new electricity supply in Ontario. The Pembina Institute's submission challenges many of the assumptions underlying the OPA's recommendations:
- The OPA overestimates Ontario's likely rate of electricity load growth from 2005 to 2025;
- The OPA underestimates the potential for electricity efficiency improvements to reduce demand for electricity;
- The OPA underestimates Ontario's renewable energy supply potential;
- The OPA underestimates the potential for cogeneration (combined heat and power plants) to assist in meeting electricity needs;
- The OPA overestimates the cost and supply risks associated with the use of natural gas for electricity generation;
- The OPA underestimates the environmental and economic costs and risks of nuclear power.
- The overall methodology for assessing the environmental performance of supply options is fundamentally flawed, and the underlying analysis contains significant gaps.
The submission recommends that the future direction of the province's approach to electricity supply be the subject of a commission of inquiry or reviewed under Ontario's Environmental Assessment Act. A "no regrets" strategy of maximizing the development of renewable energy sources and the energy efficiency and productivity of Ontario's economy should be pursued in the meantime.
