The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) forecasts energy supply and demand in the province through its Long-term Outlook (LTO), publishing its results every two years. The LTO sets the basis on which important planning decisions are made, making it an important part of operating and planning for an affordable and reliable electricity system. It also provides industrial consumers, investors and other stakeholders an indication of the trajectory of the electricity system.
Historically, the growth of wind, solar and energy storage in Alberta consistently exceeds AESO's forecasts. For example, current installations have already surpassed previous AESO projections for 2040. Similar to previous LTOs (2017, 2019 and 2021), the 2024 LTO, released in May, substantially underestimates the growth of renewable energy and thus the need for transmission infrastructure to support further growth and investment. This will lead to a more expensive, less reliable, and higher-emitting electricity system.
This report provides context of how this LTO compares to previous editions, to projects in development, and to fully operational projects in Alberta's electricity system.
