On June 18, the Ontario government announced long-awaited targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to six per cent below 1990 levels by 2014. This is just two years shy of the six per cent by 2012 obligations Canada has under the Kyoto Protocol.
Ontario has also set ambitious long-term goals to further reduce emissions 15 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050. Ontario's targets are much better than those offered by the federal government, but falls short of the plans set by Manitoba and Quebec for full Kyoto compliance.
The big question that remains is how the government actually plans to meet these targets. The province has not provided a comprehensive strategy for achieving the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Instead, the release of the targets was followed by a sprinkling of announcements over the course of the past three weeks: the Municipal Eco Challenge Fund that will provide $20 million in grants and $200 million in loans; a standard offer program for small "clean" energy projects; a $17.5 billion rapid transit announcement; a commitment to phase out coal-fired electricity generation by 2014; a $650 million "green" industrial strategy, and; $150 million for home energy efficiency retrofits and solar energy installations.
The coal-fired electricity phase-out is the most significant measure unveiled so far, providing 44 per cent of the 61 megatonne reduction in emissions needed to meet the 2014 target.
Unfortunately, the coal phase-out strategy relies on the Ontario Power Authority's highly optimistic assumptions about the reliability of new and refurbished nuclear plants. If the province's nuclear plants merely perform at their historic levels of reliability, rather than the levels the Power Authority is optimistically assuming, the strategy will not result in a coal phase out by 2014.
Beyond the coal phase out, the government is relying on a hodge-podge of initiatives to meet its 2014 emissions reduction targets. Government documents indicate the province aims to meet 11 per cent of its 2014 targets through federal measures to reduce industrial emissions. Provincial initiatives will also tally into the efforts. The greenbelt plan will account for seven per cent; the Municipal Eco Challenge eight per cent; passenger vehicles and transit initiatives five per cent; freight and diesel transportation initiatives five per cent, home energy efficiency improvements three per cent, and research and innovation 17 per cent.
The question remains, however, as to whether these initiatives will add up. The government has provided few details on the actual policy measures that it will implement and even less information on how these measures will translate into emission reductions. There are also some obvious gaps, notably the 17 per cent reduction to be accounted for by "research and innovation".
The rapid transit plan announced June 15, although welcome, reads more like a municipal and GO Transit wish list than an integrated plan. Moreover, funding would not actually start until 2011, as the Greater Toronto Transportation Authority is supposed to work out its priorities over the next few years. Once started, the plan is for the province to pay 65 per cent of $17.5 billion in capital costs, leaving the federal government to pick up the remainder - although there is no federal commitment to do so.
The government has also failed to address other measures that have been identified by the Pembina Institute and others as being essential to an effective climate change strategy for Ontario. For example, the government has not announced measures to conserve Ontario's boreal forest, which provides crucial carbon storage. More surprisingly, the province has been silent regarding adaptation measures to respond to the impacts of climate change that are already affecting the province.
Similarly, the government has yet to act on a host of steps that would be essential for achieving the targets defined for the provincial initiatives. Efforts to ensure due diligence on climate change - such as considering greenhouse gas emissions in the environmental assessment of major projects - could be implemented immediately. Yet so far, the government has declined to undertake even simple measures that it could enact under Bill 21, the Energy Conservation Responsibility Act, such as eliminating the "restrictive covenants" that prevent people in some neighbourhoods from using clotheslines to dry their laundry rather than using energy-intensive dryers.
The greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets announced by the province represent a good start on a climate change strategy for Ontario. Unfortunately, that was the easy part. The real challenge is to translate those targets into actual reductions in emissions. A more ambitious and complete strategy will be needed to do that.
Dr. Mark Winfield is Director of the Pembina Institute's Environmental Governance program. Cherise Burda is the Institute's Ontario Policy Director. Numerous publications on Ontario policy and climate change are available from www.pembina.org
