Oilsands Responsible for Up to Half of Canada's Emissions Growth

Montréal — Emissions of climate-changing greenhouse gases from Alberta's oilsands are set to increase more than threefold between 2003 and 2012, and fivefold between 2003 and 2020, according to new projections released today by the Pembina Institute. The projections show annual emissions from the oilsands increasing from 25.2 megatonnes (Mt) in 2003 to 61.9-67.9 Mt in 2010. This increase represents 41-47% of the 90 Mt growth in Canada's total annual emissions that the federal government estimates would occur over the same period under "business-as-usual" conditions.

The new emission projections include a list of all known oilsands projects and the emissions from each project. The projections were released at the United Nations Climate Change Conference which began yesterday in Montréal.

"Oilsands are the elephant in Canada's climate change room," said Dr. Marlo Raynolds, Executive Director of the Pembina Institute. "Canada cannot assume its international responsibilities unless there is a radical reduction in the greenhouse gas footprint of this industry."

The Pembina Institute is calling on the federal government to set mandatory emissions targets that ensure all oilsands producers contribute to Canada's Kyoto effort up to 2012 by purchasing credits that offset a significant proportion of emissions.

"The government has not published the 'business-as-usual' emission levels used for setting targets for existing facilities, and has been vague about how it will set targets for new facilities," said Dr. Matthew Bramley, Director, Climate Change at the Pembina Institute. "This information must be published before we can tell whether or not Canada's number one source of rising emissions will be required to make a meaningful contribution to our Kyoto effort."

In the longer term, the Pembina Institute is calling for the oilsands industry to become "carbon neutral," through a combination of emission cuts on-site and the purchase of credits to offset 100% of the remaining emissions. The Institute is also calling for the elimination of federal tax breaks and reform of the provincial royalty regime.

"By 2020, the science shows Canada needs to be well on the way to deep emission reductions," said Dr. Raynolds. "Oilsands producers have a leadership opportunity to show they can be part of a deep reduction scenario by pledging to become 'carbon neutral' by that date."

The Pembina Institute's projections of emissions from the oilsands are contained in a backgrounder entitled The Climate Implications of Canada's Oilsands Development.

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