Nearly half of Canadians surveyed in a new poll by Angus Reid say they are "dissatisfied" with Prime Minister Harper's performance at the Copenhagen climate talks. (A further 25% of respondents chose "not sure," and just 9% pronounced themselves "very satisfied," while 19% are "moderately satisfied".)
Luckily for the Prime Minister, the work towards a strong global climate deal is far from over - Copenhagen was a beginning, not an ending. The two negotiating tracks under the UN process have extended their mandates into this year, and it's still entirely possible to reach agreement on an ambitious and fair deal.
The first test is coming up quickly. The Copenhagen Accord gives industrialized countries (including Canada) until January 31 to submit their national emission reduction goals for 2020 to the UN climate secretariat. The weakness of Canada's 2020 target was part of the reason for the international criticism Canada faced in Copenhagen, so here's a golden opportunity to strengthen it.
Canada's current target - equivalent to just 3% below the 1990 level - is among the weakest in the industrialized world. And while the Copenhagen Accord calls on countries with Kyoto targets to "further strengthen the emissions reductions initiated by the Kyoto Protocol," Canada's current target for 2020 is actually weaker than the 2008-2012 target (6% below the 1990 level) we agreed to in Kyoto.
Along with the David Suzuki Foundation, Pembina commissioned modelling to look at the economic impacts of meeting a target that would bring Canada into the range scientists have identified as giving the world a chance of avoiding 2°C of global warming - the goal recognized in the Copenhagen Accord. The analysis shows that Canada could meet that target, 25% below the 1990 level in 2020, while growing our economy by 23% over the next decade and creating nearly two million net new jobs.
I can't speak for the Canadians who took part in the survey, but the announcement of a science-based target for Canada this month would definitely help cure my "dissatisfaction" with Prime Minister Harper's performance in Copenhagen.
A final note on the Angus Reid polling: The survey also asked Canadians how they felt about the Copenhagen Accord's aim "to reduce worldwide emissions by 50 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020." The pollsters found fairly strong support, with 58% of those surveyed expressing satisfaction with that target.
Just one problem: the Copenhagen Accord doesn't contain that target - or any other global emission reduction target for that matter. Maybe the pollsters are looking forward to a really ambitious agreement this year.
