It's past 3pm on Saturday afternoon in Copenhagen, and a summit that was scheduled to end nearly 24 hours ago has just ended. The result is a weak deal that needs fixing up as soon as possible, and a diminished reputation on the world stage for Canada.
The good news is that we can fix the deal, and Canada can get its act together on climate change in 2010.
The very short "Copenhagen Accord" written here last night does not have the support of all countries. Because it falls so far short of what the science requires, a handful of nations refused to agree to its provisions. Many other countries, including the United States, noted that the deal is very far from perfect. (Canada's Prime Minister, on the other hand, called it "a good agreement that achieves Canada's objectives.")
The Accord includes annexes for targets from rich countries and actions to reduce emissions from developing countries, but the numbers haven't been filled in yet; the text sets a deadline in early 2010 for doing so. It also includes two numbers for financial support for developing countries: up to US$30 billion in fast-start financing, and then US$100 billion from 2020. The language surrounding both these commitments is vague, and the fast-start funding pledges on the table so far don't add up to $30 billion. (Canada, notably, has yet to make a pledge.) Perhaps most worrying, the accord is not legally binding and contains no mechanisms to ensure that countries' commitments are strong enough to avoid dangerous climate change.
So two years of marathon negotiations haven't ended yet, and we're still far from a deal that's fair, ambitious, and binding. We have our work cut out for us in 2010.
That goes doubly for the Canadians here. Our government does not have a plan capable of meeting its target, and has yet to publish even a draft outline of a workable cap-and-trade system for Canada. We're falling far behind the U.S. in investments in clean technology, and the most recent emissions data we have (from 2007) shows that Canada's emissions are higher than ever. Delay makes it more difficult and expensive to meet our target, and it risks hurting vulnerable people around the world.
As chair of the 2010 G8 meeting and co-host of the next G20, Canada could be a key player in reaching a strong, binding global climate deal. Right now, Canada is utterly unprepared to step into that role. Avoiding a reprise of the criticism the government faced in Copenhagen will mean ending the delay and putting strong and effective policies in place well before the G8 gets underway next June.
